Surving a 20% Drawdown
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
It's been over a year since the stock market humbled me but I still get PTSD thinking about that incident. Once again, let me share my story.
The emergence of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) interrupted life as we know it. Equally, the securities markets were affected. In the beginning of 2020, South Africa was yet to feel the wrath of the virus, but on February 24 the dominoes started to fall in the Johannesburg Security Exchange (JSE).
As a Systematic Trend Follower I have an obligation to adhere to the set parameters, particularly stop levels, and to bend with the market. Majority of my positions started to hit stop losses, I sold ALL my shares in order to either take a loss or lock in whatever small profit I had. In the end I was down -20%, phew.
I stayed in cash position for 2 weeks before I started getting buy signals again. Despite the signals, the risk of ruin table paints a grim picture. In addition to working twice as much to break-even, trading costs also begin to be significant even if you use a cost-effective broker like EasyEquities. Six months later I broke-even, the account was back to where it was before the COVID-market meltdown. There was a glimmer of hope, I knew that I was now ready to get some profits, unless Mother Nature had other plans. I closed the year marginally up by 5%.
Lessons from this experience:
- Always stick to the plan. When the stop is hit, get out, don't think twice. As you can see the market recovered weeks later, some of my stocks never recovered. It's difficult to know which stocks will recover and which will struggle.
- Risk management is key for survival. Never risk more than 2% equity on a single trade, total portfolio risk should be below 15%. Seven stocks are enough to give you descent returns whilst minimising draw down. Anything greater than 20% portfolio risk will give you sleepless nights.
- The ability to end the year with a tiny profit made me realise that I'm now a tried and tested Trader. It reinforced my belief in Systematic Trend Following, the advantage of being a disciplined Trader, and I saw how easy it is to return 30% in a year.
- I don't want to experience this ever again!
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
Comments
Post a Comment