This was supposed to be a Facebook Post, but who does that when they have not published anything in days.
Today I want to touch on some limitations of using technical analysis exclusively for trading or investing. I have been caught off guard many times, thanks to risk management, I manage to swim out of those situations.
This list is by no means exhaustive, just what I can remember and what I have experienced.
- You can buy a company that is about to delist. I believe that insider trading is rife, and you cannot convince me otherwise. Typically a company can make an offer to buyout existing shareholders, more often than not at a higher price than the trading price. Some insiders may want to load up, the retail trader will start to see irregular trade volumes, and jump in if it fits their strategy. The price can go up, making really good profit. Until one day you wake up to a letter telling you that your days as the company shareholder are numbered. Well, if the offer is higher than my purchase price, it is still good for me. Profit is profit, beke le beke.
- Buying the same company. Briefly, you get a buy signal for, for the sake of simplicity, holding group, jiki jiki you get a signal for the subsidiary. Now you end up with the same thing. I have done it with Remgro, which partly owns FirstRand and Distell Group. Yes, I have all three and they are firing from all barrels!
- Buy a company that cannot afford to pay dividends. I use Market Phases to buy stocks, any company that is coming out of the Accumulation Phases is less likely to pay a dividend. The company is still trying to find its feet, fixing its balance sheet and probably shaving some debt. Do not expect dividends from this stock. What you are more likely to get is capital appreciation. More people are now interested in this stock, so there is a demand for the stock, which according Economics 101, the share price will rise. Whilst I love dividends, I love capital appreciation more, that is how I make profits, unless I have invested for income, in that case I will buy a relevant product like a Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs).
The solution to this is not to discard Technical Analysis or to incorporate Fundamental Analysis into your strategy. The strategy works, it just has limitations, limitations you are aware of. Every strategy has its limitations and hoping from one strategy to the other will not help you.
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